Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Roy Nelson is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Derrick Lewis has lost 75% of fights by KO.
- Derrick Lewis has a 15cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Roy Nelson
oldest →L
vs Alistair Overeem · Mar 15L
vs Josh Barnett · Sep 15W
vs Jared Rosholt · Feb 16W
KOvs Antonio Silva · Sep 16L
vs Alexander Volkov · Apr 17 Derrick LewisL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Jailton Almeida · Nov 23W
KOvs Rodrigo Nascimento · May 24W
KOvs Tallison Teixeira · Jul 25L
KOvs Waldo Cortes Acosta · Jan 26L
KOvs Josh Hokit · Jun 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Roy NelsonMetricDerrick Lewis
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-2.61Δ 2.50 — meaningful gap-0.11
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Roy NelsonDerrick Lewis
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Roy Nelson(10 fights)Derrick Lewis(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +9.3|Blue -9.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +64.0|Blue -64.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Roy NelsonTargetDerrick Lewis
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Derrick Lewis edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns2
Control3:24
24Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Round 2Roy Nelson edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns3
Control2:44
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Roy Nelson edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns2
Control3:31
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
