Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paddy Pimblett threatens submissions; Kazula Vargas has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Kazula Vargas has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kazula Vargas (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Paddy Pimblett
oldest →W
vs Tony Ferguson · Dec 23W
SUBvs King Green · Jul 24W
KOvs Michael Chandler · Apr 25L
vs Justin Gaethje · Jan 26W
SUBvs Benoit Saint Denis · Jul 26 Kazula Vargas
oldest →L
vs Alex Da Silva · Aug 19 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Paddy PimblettMetricKazula Vargas
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.60evenly matched on net striking+1.88
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Paddy PimblettKazula Vargas
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Paddy Pimblett(9 fights)Kazula Vargas(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +47.3|Blue -47.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -133.0|Blue +133.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Paddy PimblettTargetKazula Vargas
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Kazula Vargas edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns1
Control0:53
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:43Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
