Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Nate Marquardt enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Nate Marquardt has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Dan MillerL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Joe Doerksen · Dec 10L
vs Rousimar Palhares · Aug 11W
SUBvs Ricardo Funch · Jun 12L
KOvs Jordan Mein · Mar 13L
vs Trevor Smith · Jul 15 Nate MarquardtL3 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Thiago Santos · May 16W
KOvs Tamdan McCrory · Oct 16L
vs Vitor Belfort · Jun 17L
vs Cezar Ferreira · Nov 17 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Dan MillerMetricNate Marquardt
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.03Δ 1.42 — meaningful gap+0.39
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Dan MillerNate Marquardt
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Dan Miller(8 fights)Nate Marquardt(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -7.6|Blue +7.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -28.0|Blue +28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Dan MillerTargetNate Marquardt
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Nate Marquardt edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns1
Control1:10
7Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:53Control
Round 2Nate Marquardt edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns1
Control0:50
19Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:14Control
Round 3Nate Marquardt edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
3:12Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
