Recent Form
Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Yorgan De CastroL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Justin Tafa · Oct 19L
KOvs Jarjis Danho · Apr 21 Carlos Felipe
oldest →L
vs Serghei Spivac · Jul 20W
vs Jake Collier · Jun 21L
vs Andrei Arlovski · Oct 21 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Yorgan De CastroMetricCarlos Felipe
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.39evenly matched on net striking-0.72
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Yorgan De CastroCarlos Felipe
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Yorgan De Castro(4 fights)Carlos Felipe(5 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -96.0|Blue +96.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +70.0|Blue -70.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Yorgan De CastroTargetCarlos Felipe
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Carlos Felipe edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:00
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns0
Control0:30
27Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:04Control
Round 3Carlos Felipe edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control2:43
28Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:24Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
