Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Allan Nascimento threatens submissions; Cody Durden has lost 56% of fights by sub.
- Cody Durden has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Cody Durden (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Allan Nascimento
oldest →L
vs Tagir Ulanbekov · Oct 21W
SUBvs Carlos Hernandez · Jan 23L
DECvs Mitch Raposo · Jun 26 Cody Durden
oldest →L
KOvs Jose Ochoa · Jun 25L
vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel · Mar 26W
DECvs Jafel Filho · Apr 26L
SUBvs Alessandro Costa · Jul 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Allan NascimentoMetricCody Durden
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.53Δ 1.23 — meaningful gap-0.70
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Allan NascimentoCody Durden
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Allan Nascimento(6 fights)Cody Durden(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +65.0|Blue -65.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +1.6|Blue -1.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +14.0|Blue -14.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Allan NascimentoTargetCody Durden
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Cody Durden edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns0
Control0:00
36Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:03Control
Round 2Allan Nascimento edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns0
Control0:21
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
