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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Ryan Loder won · KO/TKO R2
Elo1461
Robert Valentin editorial illustration
Elo1477

Robert ValentinvsRyan LoderUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · Saturday, August 24, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ryan Loder won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:49

Model Prediction: Ryan Loder wins(57.4%)

Actual result: Ryan Loder wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ryan Loder at +120 American odds

+$120 profit

$220 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Ryan Loder is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Robert Valentin has lost 67% of fights by KO.
  • Ryan Loder has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Ryan Loder has 45pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Ryan Loder (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Robert Valentin
Red Corner
VS
Ryan Loder
Blue Corner
-142
(59%)
Vegas Odds
+120
(45%)
1461
Elo
1477
31
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'2"
Height
6'2"
195.58 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Robert ValentinL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Torrez Finney · Apr 25
L
KOvs Ateba Gautier · Jul 25
latest
Ryan LoderL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Azamat Bekoev · May 25
L
KOvs Ismail Naurdiev · Nov 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Robert ValentinMetricRyan Loder
1.30
Strikes / min
5.10
2.72
Strikes absorbed / min
2.46
33%
Strike defense
50%
0.59
TDs / 15 min
1.37
55%
Takedown defense
100%
1.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.42Δ 4.06 — meaningful gap+2.64

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes0.1 vs 6.2Takedowns0.0 vs 2.2Sub Atts4.40 vs 2.20Form0.0 vs 0.0
Robert ValentinRyan Loder

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14501468148515031520← oldermost recent →
Robert Valentin(3 fights)Ryan Loder(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -16.2|Blue +16.2
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Robert ValentinTargetRyan Loder

By target zone

1
50% acc · 100%
Head
41
80% acc · 98%
0
Body
1
100% acc · 2%
0
Leg
0

By position

1
50% acc · 100%
Distance
1
50% acc · 2%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
41
82% acc · 98%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Robert Valentin rounds
0
even
2
Ryan Loder rounds
Round 1Ryan Loder edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control1:38
4Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
3:08Control
Round 2Ryan Loder edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
38Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:37Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
1 / 2
Sig Strikes
42 / 52
50%
Sig Str %
80%
5 / 6
Total Strikes
63 / 73
0 / 1
TDs
1 / 3
0%
TD %
25%
2
Sub Att
1
1
Rev
1
1:38
Ctrl Time
4:45

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ryan Loder4 / 520 / 211 / 21
1Robert Valentin0 / 13 / 40 / 02
2Ryan Loder38 / 4743 / 520 / 10
2Robert Valentin1 / 12 / 20 / 10

Robert Valentin

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights3

Ryan Loder

StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights3