Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Morgan Charriere has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Melquizael Costa (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Melquizael Costa
oldest →W
SUBvs Andre Fili · Feb 25W
vs Christian Rodriguez · Mar 25W
vs Julian Erosa · May 25L
DECvs Arnold Allen · May 26 Morgan Charriere
oldest →W
KOvs Manolo Zecchini · Sep 23L
vs Chepe Mariscal · Apr 24W
KOvs Gabriel Miranda · Sep 24L
vs Nathaniel Wood · Mar 25W
KOvs Nate Landwehr · Jul 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Melquizael CostaMetricMorgan Charriere
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.41Δ 1.90 — meaningful gap-0.49
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Melquizael CostaMorgan Charriere
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Melquizael Costa(10 fights)Morgan Charriere(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +61.6|Blue -61.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +56.0|Blue -56.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Melquizael CostaTargetMorgan Charriere
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Melquizael Costa edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:02
Knockdowns1
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
