← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Gabriel Bonfim won · SUB R2

Elo1565

Elo1512

Gabriel BonfimvsKhaos WilliamsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · Saturday, February 15, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Gabriel Bonfim won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:58

Style matchupGabriel Bonfim: WrestlervsKhaos Williams: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Gabriel Bonfim wins(76.6%)

Actual result: Gabriel Bonfim wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gabriel Bonfim at -245 American odds

+$41 profit

$141 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gabriel Bonfim enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Gabriel Bonfim has 23pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Gabriel Bonfim has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Khaos Williams has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Gabriel Bonfim

Red Corner

Khaos Williams

Blue Corner

-245

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1565

Elo

1512

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gabriel BonfimW4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nicolas Dalby · Nov 23

vs Ange Loosa · Jul 24

vs Stephen Thompson · Jul 25

KOvs Randy Brown · Nov 25

DECvs Belal Muhammad · Jun 26

latest

Khaos Williams

oldest →

vs Randy Brown · May 22

vs Rolando Bedoya · May 23

KOvs Carlston Harris · May 24

vs Andreas Gustafsson · Jun 25

KOvs Nikolay Veretennikov · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gabriel BonfimMetricKhaos Williams

4.61

Strikes / min

4.94

3.68

Strikes absorbed / min

5.39

63%

Strike defense

40%

3.60

TDs / 15 min

0.00

76%

Takedown defense

51%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.93Δ 1.38 — meaningful gap-0.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gabriel BonfimKhaos Williams

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gabriel Bonfim(8 fights)Khaos Williams(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +53.0|Blue -53.0

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Layoff

Red -56.0|Blue +56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gabriel BonfimTargetKhaos Williams

By target zone

40% acc · 57%

Head

15% acc · 40%

0% acc

Body

15% acc · 10%

88% acc · 43%

Leg

43% acc · 50%

By position

49% acc · 100%

Distance

22% acc · 100%

0% acc

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gabriel Bonfim rounds

even

Khaos Williams rounds

Round 1Gabriel Bonfim edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns3

Control1:08

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 2Gabriel Bonfim edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns1

Control0:34

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

35 / 72

Sig Strikes

20 / 90

43.5%

Sig Str %

21.5%

35 / 72

Total Strikes

23 / 94

4 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

87.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:42

Ctrl Time

0:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Khaos Williams	7 / 41	10 / 45	0 / 0	0
1	Gabriel Bonfim	7 / 23	7 / 23	3 / 4	1
2	Khaos Williams	13 / 49	13 / 49	0 / 0	0
2	Gabriel Bonfim	28 / 49	28 / 49	1 / 1	1

Gabriel Bonfim

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8

Khaos Williams

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights9