Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Christian Rodriguez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1544

Elo1521

Raul Rosas Jr.vsChristian RodriguezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · Saturday, April 8, 2023Miami, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Christian Rodriguez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupRaul Rosas Jr.: WrestlervsChristian Rodriguez: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Raul Rosas Jr. wins(61.9%)

Actual result: Christian Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Raul Rosas Jr. at -270 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Raul Rosas Jr. enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Christian Rodriguez has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Raul Rosas Jr. (52.9%).
Christian Rodriguez has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Raul Rosas Jr.

Red Corner

Christian Rodriguez

Blue Corner

-270

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1544

Elo

1521

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

170.18 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Raul Rosas Jr.W5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Terrence Mitchell · Sep 23

SUBvs Ricky Turcios · Jun 24

vs Aoriqileng · Sep 24

vs Vince Morales · Mar 25

vs Rob Font · Mar 26

latest

Christian Rodriguez

oldest →

SUBvs Julian Erosa · Jul 24

vs Austin Bashi · Jan 25

vs Melquizael Costa · Mar 25

vs Andre Fili · Aug 25

SUBvs Hyder Amil · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Raul Rosas Jr.MetricChristian Rodriguez

1.34

Strikes / min

3.85

1.24

Strikes absorbed / min

2.85

52%

Strike defense

56%

6.10

TDs / 15 min

1.75

25%

Takedown defense

67%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.10evenly matched on net striking+1.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Raul Rosas Jr.Christian Rodriguez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Raul Rosas Jr.(7 fights)Christian Rodriguez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +23.1|Blue -23.1

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Raul Rosas Jr.TargetChristian Rodriguez

By target zone

13% acc · 100%

Head

55% acc · 90%

0% acc

Body

60% acc · 10%

0% acc

Leg

By position

11% acc · 100%

Distance

22% acc · 14%

Clinch

57% acc · 14%

Ground

78% acc · 72%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Raul Rosas Jr. rounds

even

Christian Rodriguez rounds

Round 1Raul Rosas Jr. edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns3

Control4:02

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:34Control

Round 2Christian Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:48

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:37Control

Round 3Christian Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:19Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 19

Sig Strikes

29 / 52

6.5%

Sig Str %

52%

2 / 19

Total Strikes

83 / 115

3 / 16

TDs

1 / 1

12.3%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

4:50

Ctrl Time

7:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Christian Rodriguez	2 / 6	9 / 14	0 / 0	0
1	Raul Rosas Jr.	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 8	1
2	Christian Rodriguez	4 / 6	24 / 32	0 / 0	0
2	Raul Rosas Jr.	0 / 4	0 / 4	0 / 5	0
3	Christian Rodriguez	23 / 40	50 / 69	1 / 1	0
3	Raul Rosas Jr.	2 / 15	2 / 15	0 / 3	0

Raul Rosas Jr.

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights7

Christian Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10