← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Zak Ottow won · S-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1430

Zak OttowvsDwight GrantUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta · Saturday, December 15, 2018Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA

Official fight result

Zak Ottow won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupZak Ottow: Well-roundedvsDwight Grant: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Zak Ottow wins(62.8%)

Actual result: Zak Ottow wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Zak Ottow at +230 American odds

+$230 profit

$330 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dwight Grant enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Dwight Grant (52.9%).
Dwight Grant has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Zak Ottow

Red Corner

Dwight Grant

Blue Corner

+230

(30%)

Vegas Odds

-270

(73%)

1491

Elo

1430

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'11"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Zak OttowL2 streak

oldest →

vs Kiichi Kunimoto · Jun 17

KOvs Li Jingliang · Nov 17

KOvs Mike Pyle · Mar 18

KOvs Sage Northcutt · Jul 18

KOvs Alex Morono · Mar 19

latest

Dwight GrantL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Daniel Rodriguez · Aug 20

vs Stefan Sekulic · Apr 21

vs Francisco Trinaldo · Oct 21

KOvs Sergey Khandozhko · Apr 22

vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Zak OttowMetricDwight Grant

2.63

Strikes / min

3.29

2.73

Strikes absorbed / min

2.66

58%

Strike defense

60%

0.97

TDs / 15 min

0.61

57%

Takedown defense

66%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.10evenly matched on net striking+0.63

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Zak OttowDwight Grant

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Zak Ottow(8 fights)Dwight Grant(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +61.8|Blue -61.8

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -47.4|Blue +47.4

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Zak OttowTargetDwight Grant

By target zone

9% acc · 36%

Head

21% acc · 60%

50% acc · 50%

Body

78% acc · 28%

50% acc · 14%

Leg

75% acc · 12%

By position

16% acc · 79%

Distance

25% acc · 76%

67% acc · 14%

Clinch

83% acc · 20%

100% acc · 7%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Zak Ottow rounds

even

Dwight Grant rounds

Round 1Dwight Grant edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 2Dwight Grant edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:02

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 3Zak Ottow edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control2:51

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 71

Sig Strikes

25 / 84

21.7%

Sig Str %

29.3%

22 / 82

Total Strikes

33 / 93

1 / 6

TDs

1 / 1

10%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

2:53

Ctrl Time

0:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dwight Grant	7 / 29	7 / 29	1 / 1
1	Zak Ottow	5 / 28	5 / 28	0 / 0
2	Dwight Grant	7 / 25	11 / 29	0 / 0
2	Zak Ottow	3 / 27	3 / 27	0 / 1
3	Dwight Grant	11 / 30	15 / 35	0 / 0
3	Zak Ottow	6 / 16	14 / 27	1 / 5

Zak Ottow

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8

Dwight Grant

StanceSwitch

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights8