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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Chas Skelly won · SUB R1

Elo1495

Elo1354

Chas SkellyvsTom NiinimakiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Le · Saturday, August 23, 2014Tulsa, Oklahoma, USA

Official fight result

Chas Skelly won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:35

Style matchupChas Skelly: Submission grapplervsTom Niinimaki: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Tom Niinimaki wins(58.3%)

Actual result: Chas Skelly wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tom Niinimaki at -155 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chas Skelly threatens submissions; Tom Niinimaki has lost 100% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Chas Skelly

Red Corner

Tom Niinimaki

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1495

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Chas SkellyW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Feb 17

KOvs Jason Knight · May 17

vs Bobby Moffett · Nov 18

vs Jordan Griffin · Sep 19

KOvs Mark Striegl · Feb 22

latest

Tom NiinimakiL2 streak

oldest →

vs Rani Yahya · Nov 13

SUBvs Niklas Backstrom · May 14

SUBvs Renato Moicano · Dec 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Chas SkellyMetricTom Niinimaki

2.01

Strikes / min

1.91

3.21

Strikes absorbed / min

2.31

49%

Strike defense

58%

1.74

TDs / 15 min

2.97

39%

Takedown defense

33%

2.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.20evenly matched on net striking-0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Chas SkellyTom Niinimaki

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Chas Skelly(10 fights)Tom Niinimaki(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +141.2|Blue -141.2

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Chas SkellyTargetTom Niinimaki

By target zone

18% acc · 100%

Head

25% acc · 100%

Body

Leg

By position

11% acc · 50%

Distance

33% acc · 100%

50% acc · 50%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Chas Skelly rounds

even

Tom Niinimaki rounds

Round 1Chas Skelly edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control1:16

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:56Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2 / 11

Sig Strikes

1 / 4

18%

Sig Str %

25%

3 / 12

Total Strikes

3 / 6

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:16

Ctrl Time

0:56

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tom Niinimaki	1 / 4	3 / 6	0 / 0	1
1	Chas Skelly	2 / 11	3 / 12	1 / 1	1

Chas Skelly

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights12

Tom Niinimaki

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4