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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Beneil Dariush won · U-DEC R3

Elo1480

Elo1523

Beneil DariushvsRenato MoicanoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · Saturday, June 28, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Beneil Dariush won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupBeneil Dariush: WrestlervsRenato Moicano: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Beneil Dariush wins(61.7%)

Actual result: Beneil Dariush wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Beneil Dariush at -112 American odds

+$89 profit

$189 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Beneil Dariush enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Beneil Dariush has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Beneil Dariush (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Beneil Dariush

Red Corner

Renato Moicano

Blue Corner

-112

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-104

(51%)

1480

Elo

1523

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Beneil DariushL4 streak

oldest →

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 22

KOvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 23

KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Dec 23

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Nov 25

KOvs Quillan Salkilld · May 26

latest

Renato Moicano

oldest →

vs Drew Dober · Feb 24

KOvs Jalin Turner · Apr 24

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Sep 24

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jan 25

SUBvs Chris Duncan · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Beneil DariushMetricRenato Moicano

3.74

Strikes / min

4.10

2.63

Strikes absorbed / min

3.55

57%

Strike defense

59%

2.21

TDs / 15 min

1.68

82%

Takedown defense

64%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.11evenly matched on net striking+0.55

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Beneil DariushRenato Moicano

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Beneil Dariush(10 fights)Renato Moicano(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -42.2|Blue +42.2

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +413.0|Blue -413.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Beneil DariushTargetRenato Moicano

By target zone

41% acc · 54%

Head

48% acc · 81%

67% acc · 18%

Body

67% acc · 13%

84% acc · 29%

Leg

67% acc · 6%

By position

49% acc · 84%

Distance

46% acc · 81%

80% acc · 7%

Clinch

80% acc · 13%

71% acc · 9%

Ground

100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Beneil Dariush rounds

even

Renato Moicano rounds

Round 1Renato Moicano edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:45Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Beneil Dariush edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns2

Control4:46

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Beneil Dariush edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns3

Control1:07

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:35Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

56 / 107

Sig Strikes

31 / 61

53%

Sig Str %

49.7%

77 / 131

Total Strikes

38 / 69

5 / 5

TDs

0 / 3

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:53

Ctrl Time

1:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Renato Moicano	22 / 42	25 / 45	0 / 0
1	Beneil Dariush	22 / 46	22 / 46	0 / 0
2	Renato Moicano	1 / 2	3 / 4	0 / 1
2	Beneil Dariush	8 / 14	28 / 37	2 / 2
3	Renato Moicano	8 / 17	10 / 20	0 / 2
3	Beneil Dariush	26 / 47	27 / 48	3 / 3

Beneil Dariush

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights24

Renato Moicano

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights20