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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Natalia Silva won · U-DEC R3

Elo1477

Elo1550

Andrea LeevsNatalia SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Saturday, August 19, 2023Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Natalia Silva won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAndrea Lee: Pressure fightervsNatalia Silva: Elusive striker

The elusive striker must use the cage and footwork. The pressure fighter forces the war.

Model Prediction: Natalia Silva wins(78.9%)

Actual result: Natalia Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andrea Lee enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Natalia Silva enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Natalia Silva has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Natalia Silva (53.5%).
Andrea Lee has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Andrea Lee

Red Corner

Natalia Silva

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1477

Elo

1550

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'4"

175.26 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Andrea LeeL5 streak

oldest →

vs Viviane Araujo · May 22

vs Maycee Barber · Mar 23

vs Miranda Maverick · Feb 24

vs Montana De La Rosa · Jun 24

vs JJ Aldrich · Mar 25

latest

Natalia SilvaW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Victoria Leonardo · May 23

vs Viviane Araujo · Feb 24

vs Jessica Andrade · Sep 24

vs Alexa Grasso · May 25

vs Rose Namajunas · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Andrea LeeMetricNatalia Silva

4.62

Strikes / min

4.81

3.91

Strikes absorbed / min

2.36

61%

Strike defense

66%

1.65

TDs / 15 min

0.43

53%

Takedown defense

90%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.71Δ 1.74 — meaningful gap+2.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Andrea LeeNatalia Silva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Andrea Lee(10 fights)Natalia Silva(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -73.0|Blue +73.0

Recent Form

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Andrea LeeTargetNatalia Silva

By target zone

16% acc · 28%

Head

31% acc · 49%

48% acc · 26%

Body

40% acc · 24%

71% acc · 47%

Leg

95% acc · 27%

By position

34% acc · 100%

Distance

40% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Andrea Lee rounds

even

Natalia Silva rounds

Round 1Natalia Silva edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Natalia Silva edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Natalia Silva edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 125

Sig Strikes

70 / 174

34%

Sig Str %

40%

43 / 125

Total Strikes

70 / 174

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Natalia Silva	26 / 62	26 / 62	0 / 0
1	Andrea Lee	14 / 49	14 / 49	0 / 0
2	Natalia Silva	22 / 50	22 / 50	0 / 0
2	Andrea Lee	18 / 42	18 / 42	0 / 0
3	Natalia Silva	22 / 62	22 / 62	0 / 0
3	Andrea Lee	11 / 34	11 / 34	0 / 0

Andrea Lee

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights14

Natalia Silva

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights8