← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Khamzat Chimaev won · U-DEC R3

Elo1466

Elo1517

Gilbert BurnsvsKhamzat ChimaevUFC Prediction Result

UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · Saturday, April 9, 2022Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Khamzat Chimaev won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupGilbert Burns: WrestlervsKhamzat Chimaev: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Khamzat Chimaev wins(76.9%)

Actual result: Khamzat Chimaev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Khamzat Chimaev at -510 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Khamzat Chimaev has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Khamzat Chimaev has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Gilbert Burns

Red Corner

Khamzat Chimaev

Blue Corner

+375

(21%)

Vegas Odds

-510

(84%)

1466

Elo

1517

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'2"

180.34 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gilbert BurnsL5 streak

oldest →

vs Belal Muhammad · May 23

KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Mar 24

vs Sean Brady · Sep 24

KOvs Michael Morales · May 25

KOvs Mike Malott · Apr 26

latest

Khamzat Chimaev

oldest →

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Sep 22

vs Kamaru Usman · Oct 23

SUBvs Robert Whittaker · Oct 24

vs Dricus Du Plessis · Aug 25

DECvs Sean Strickland · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gilbert BurnsMetricKhamzat Chimaev

3.16

Strikes / min

4.01

3.68

Strikes absorbed / min

2.98

52%

Strike defense

52%

2.04

TDs / 15 min

5.32

53%

Takedown defense

87%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.52Δ 1.55 — meaningful gap+1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gilbert BurnsKhamzat Chimaev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gilbert Burns(10 fights)Khamzat Chimaev(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -51.3|Blue +51.3

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red +112.0|Blue -112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gilbert BurnsTargetKhamzat Chimaev

By target zone

54% acc · 75%

Head

44% acc · 78%

92% acc · 18%

Body

64% acc · 13%

80% acc · 7%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

56% acc · 83%

Distance

46% acc · 81%

90% acc · 8%

Clinch

85% acc · 10%

92% acc · 9%

Ground

53% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gilbert Burns rounds

even

Khamzat Chimaev rounds

Round 1Khamzat Chimaev edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

27Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:44Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Gilbert Burns edged it

Sig. strikes56

Takedowns0

Control0:02

37Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes45

Takedowns0

Control0:04

44Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:29Control

Fight Stats

Totals

119 / 200

Sig Strikes

108 / 223

56.7%

Sig Str %

48.3%

141 / 223

Total Strikes

124 / 239

0 / 5

TDs

2 / 3

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

2:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Khamzat Chimaev	27 / 54	39 / 66	1 / 2
1	Gilbert Burns	18 / 42	29 / 53	0 / 0
2	Khamzat Chimaev	37 / 75	41 / 79	1 / 1
2	Gilbert Burns	56 / 90	63 / 98	0 / 3
3	Khamzat Chimaev	44 / 94	44 / 94	0 / 0
3	Gilbert Burns	45 / 68	49 / 72	0 / 2

Gilbert Burns

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24

Khamzat Chimaev

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10