Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Erik Perez enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Bryan Caraway threatens submissions; Erik Perez has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Erik Perez has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Erik PerezW4 streak
oldest →L
vs Takeya Mizugaki · Aug 13W
vs Edwin Figueroa · Nov 13W
vs Taylor Lapilus · Nov 15W
vs Francisco Rivera · Jul 16W
vs Felipe Arantes · Nov 16 Bryan CarawayL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Raphael Assuncao · Oct 14W
vs Eddie Wineland · Jul 15W
vs Aljamain Sterling · May 16L
vs Cody Stamann · Mar 18L
KOvs Pedro Munhoz · Nov 18 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Erik PerezMetricBryan Caraway
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.07Δ 2.15 — meaningful gap-1.08
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Erik PerezBryan Caraway
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Erik Perez(9 fights)Bryan Caraway(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +121.6|Blue -121.6
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -203.0|Blue +203.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Erik PerezTargetBryan Caraway
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns1
Control1:33
5Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:11Control
Round 2Bryan Caraway edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:28Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
