Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Cain Velasquez is a KO finisher (83% of wins). Fabricio Werdum has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Fabricio Werdum threatens submissions; Cain Velasquez has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Cain Velasquez has 54pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Cain Velasquez
oldest →W
vs Junior Dos Santos · Dec 12W
KOvs Antonio Silva · May 13W
KOvs Junior Dos Santos · Oct 13W
KOvs Travis Browne · Jul 16L
KOvs Francis Ngannou · Feb 19 Fabricio Werdum
oldest →W
SUBvs Walt Harris · Oct 17W
vs Marcin Tybura · Nov 17L
KOvs Alexander Volkov · Mar 18L
vs Aleksei Oleinik · May 20W
SUBvs Alexander Gustafsson · Jul 20 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Cain VelasquezMetricFabricio Werdum
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+4.04Δ 3.09 — meaningful gap+0.95
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Cain VelasquezFabricio Werdum
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Cain Velasquez(9 fights)Fabricio Werdum(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -1.1|Blue +1.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +392.0|Blue -392.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Cain VelasquezTargetFabricio Werdum
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Cain Velasquez edged it
Sig. strikes35
Takedowns2
Control2:28
21Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:09Control
Round 2Fabricio Werdum edged it
Sig. strikes43
Takedowns0
Control0:00
63Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:11Control
Round 3Cain Velasquez edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns2
Control0:30
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:11Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
