Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Khabib Nurmagomedov has 44pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Khabib NurmagomedovW5 streak
oldest →W
vs Edson Barboza · Dec 17W
SUBvs Conor McGregor · Oct 18W
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Sep 19W
SUBvs Justin Gaethje · Oct 20 Abel TrujilloL2 streak
oldest →W
vs Gleison Tibau · Nov 15W
SUBvs Tony Sims · Jan 16W
vs Jordan Rinaldi · May 16L
SUBvs James Vick · Feb 17L
vs John Makdessi · Dec 17 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Khabib NurmagomedovMetricAbel Trujillo
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+2.35Δ 2.01 — meaningful gap+0.34
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Khabib NurmagomedovAbel Trujillo
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Khabib Nurmagomedov(10 fights)Abel Trujillo(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +130.0|Blue -130.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.5|Blue -1.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -42.0|Blue +42.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Khabib NurmagomedovTargetAbel Trujillo
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
3
Khabib Nurmagomedov rounds
Round 1Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns7
Control2:13
2Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:25Control
Round 2Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns5
Control3:47
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:08Control
Round 3Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns9
Control4:26
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
