Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Martin Kampmann has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Thiago AlvesL2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Curtis Millender · Feb 18L
vs Aleksei Kunchenko · Sep 18L
vs Laureano Staropoli · May 19L
SUBvs Tim Means · Dec 19 Martin KampmannL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Diego Sanchez · Mar 11W
KOvs Jake Ellenberger · Jun 12L
KOvs Johny Hendricks · Nov 12L
KOvs Carlos Condit · Aug 13 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Thiago AlvesMetricMartin Kampmann
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.31evenly matched on net striking-0.06
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Thiago AlvesMartin Kampmann
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Thiago Alves(10 fights)Martin Kampmann(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +26.2|Blue -26.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +14.0|Blue -14.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Thiago AlvesTargetMartin Kampmann
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control2:23
12Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:03Control
Round 2Thiago Alves edged it
Sig. strikes32
Takedowns0
Control0:00
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:34Control
Round 3Thiago Alves edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns1
Control0:08
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:53Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
