← All fights/Event page

Bantamweight

5 Rounds

John Lineker won · S-DEC R5

Elo1492

Elo1493

John LinekervsJohn DodsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lineker vs. Dodson · Saturday, October 1, 2016Portland, Oregon, USA

Official fight result

John Lineker won

S-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupJohn Lineker: Pressure fightervsJohn Dodson: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: John Lineker wins(62.5%)

Actual result: John Lineker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Lineker at +105 American odds

+$105 profit

$205 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

John Dodson has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

John Lineker

Red Corner

John Dodson

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1492

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'3"

Height

5'3"

170.18 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

John Lineker

oldest →

KOvs Michael McDonald · Jul 16

vs TJ Dillashaw · Dec 16

vs Marlon Vera · Oct 17

KOvs Brian Kelleher · May 18

vs Cory Sandhagen · Apr 19

latest

John Dodson

oldest →

vs Pedro Munhoz · Mar 18

vs Jimmie Rivera · Sep 18

vs Petr Yan · Feb 19

KOvs Nathaniel Wood · Feb 20

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Aug 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

John LinekerMetricJohn Dodson

5.36

Strikes / min

3.20

4.27

Strikes absorbed / min

3.58

56%

Strike defense

61%

0.56

TDs / 15 min

0.71

67%

Takedown defense

82%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.09Δ 1.47 — meaningful gap-0.38

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

John LinekerJohn Dodson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

John Lineker(10 fights)John Dodson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -88.0|Blue +88.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

John LinekerTargetJohn Dodson

By target zone

21% acc · 51%

Head

40% acc · 55%

42% acc · 38%

Body

87% acc · 26%

73% acc · 12%

Leg

90% acc · 19%

By position

28% acc · 89%

Distance

53% acc · 97%

45% acc · 11%

Clinch

60% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

John Lineker rounds

even

John Dodson rounds

Round 1John Dodson edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4John Lineker edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5John Dodson edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:23Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

93 / 322

Sig Strikes

101 / 191

28%

Sig Str %

52.8%

94 / 323

Total Strikes

101 / 191

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 6

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	John Dodson	15 / 23	15 / 23	0 / 1
1	John Lineker	9 / 31	9 / 31	0 / 0
2	John Dodson	15 / 31	15 / 31	0 / 0
2	John Lineker	16 / 67	16 / 67	0 / 0
3	John Dodson	15 / 34	15 / 34	0 / 1
3	John Lineker	14 / 60	15 / 61	0 / 0
4	John Lineker	27 / 83	27 / 83	0 / 0
4	John Dodson	22 / 44	22 / 44	0 / 3
5	John Dodson	34 / 59	34 / 59	0 / 1
5	John Lineker	27 / 81	27 / 81	0 / 0

John Lineker

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights16

John Dodson

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights17