Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Thiago MoisesL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Mitch Ramirez · Mar 24L
vs Ludovit Klein · Jun 24L
KOvs Jared Gordon · May 25L
DECvs Gauge Young · Apr 26 Kurt HolobaughL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Austin Hubbard · Aug 23W
vs Kaynan Kruschewsky · Jul 24L
vs Alexander Hernandez · Mar 25L
SUBvs Jordan Leavitt · May 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Thiago MoisesMetricKurt Holobaugh
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.88Δ 2.22 — meaningful gap+0.34
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Thiago MoisesKurt Holobaugh
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Thiago Moises(10 fights)Kurt Holobaugh(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -4.2|Blue +4.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -2.4|Blue +2.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -7.0|Blue +7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Thiago MoisesTargetKurt Holobaugh
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Thiago Moises edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns1
Control2:50
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:07Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns1
Control2:02
24Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:18Control
Round 3Thiago Moises edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns2
Control3:00
4Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
0:49Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
