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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Jeremiah Wells won · Submission R3

Elo1533

Elo1531

Jeremiah WellsvsMyktybek OrolbaiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · Saturday, August 15, 2026Philadelphia, USA

Official fight result

Jeremiah Wells won

Submission · Round 3 · 1:24

Engine 7.0 was wrong

Pre-fight pick: Myktybek Orolbai

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Myktybek Orolbai at -606 American odds · hypothetical only

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Style matchupJeremiah Wells: WrestlervsMyktybek Orolbai: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Myktybek Orolbai enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Myktybek Orolbai threatens submissions; Jeremiah Wells has lost 50% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Jeremiah Wells

Red Corner

Myktybek Orolbai

Blue Corner

+429

(19%)

Vegas Odds

-606

(86%)

1533

Elo

1531

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Jeremiah Wells

oldest →

KOvs Court McGee · Jun 22

vs Matthew Semelsberger · Apr 23

SUBvs Carlston Harris · Aug 23

vs Max Griffin · Feb 24

vs Themba Gorimbo · Nov 25

latest

Myktybek OrolbaiW3 streak

oldest →

vs Elves Brener · May 24

vs Mateusz Rebecki · Oct 24

SUBvs Tofiq Musayev · Jun 25

KOvs Jack Hermansson · Nov 25

vs Chris Curtis · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Jeremiah WellsMetricMyktybek Orolbai

2.35

Strikes / min

2.78

1.28

Strikes absorbed / min

2.70

48%

Strike defense

51%

3.06

TDs / 15 min

8.77

50%

Takedown defense

40%

1.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.07evenly matched on net striking+0.08

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Jeremiah Wells(8 fights)Myktybek Orolbai(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.3|Blue -2.3

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red +133.0|Blue -133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Jeremiah WellsTargetMyktybek Orolbai

By target zone

33% acc · 88%

Head

73% acc · 85%

100% acc · 13%

Body

80% acc · 15%

Leg

By position

36% acc · 100%

Distance

47% acc · 27%

Clinch

Ground

95% acc · 73%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Jeremiah Wells rounds

even

Myktybek Orolbai rounds

Round 1Myktybek Orolbai edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:14

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:14Control

Round 2Myktybek Orolbai edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:09

4Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:04Control

Round 3Jeremiah Wells edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control0:00

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 45

Sig Strikes

26 / 35

31.7%

Sig Str %

63.3%

28 / 57

Total Strikes

67 / 83

1 / 1

TDs

4 / 6

100%

TD %

58.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:23

Ctrl Time

6:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Myktybek Orolbai	20 / 24	47 / 57	1 / 1	0
1	Jeremiah Wells	11 / 22	20 / 31	0 / 0	0
2	Myktybek Orolbai	4 / 7	18 / 22	3 / 4	0
2	Jeremiah Wells	3 / 10	6 / 13	0 / 0	0
3	Myktybek Orolbai	2 / 4	2 / 4	0 / 1	0
3	Jeremiah Wells	2 / 13	2 / 13	1 / 1	1

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Myktybek Orolbai

Odds

-606

Market-implied probability

Myktybek Orolbai 82%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Jeremiah Wells$529

Myktybek Orolbai (model pick · research)$117

82% market-implied · model 51% (research) · vufc_v7_0_20260718_090638

🔒 Pick locked Jul 18, 2026, 9:29 AM UTC · never rewritten

Jeremiah Wells

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights8

Myktybek Orolbai

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7