Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Walel Watson is a KO finisher (100% of wins). TJ Dillashaw has lost 60% of fights by KO.
- TJ Dillashaw has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- TJ Dillashaw has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Walel Watson has a 20cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
TJ Dillashaw
oldest →W
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Nov 17W
KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Aug 18L
KOvs Henry Cejudo · Jan 19W
vs Cory Sandhagen · Jul 21L
KOvs Aljamain Sterling · Oct 22 Walel WatsonL2 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Joseph Sandoval · Oct 11L
vs Yves Jabouin · Dec 11L
SUBvs Mitch Gagnon · Sep 12 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
TJ DillashawMetricWalel Watson
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.62Δ 3.31 — meaningful gap-1.69
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
TJ DillashawWalel Watson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
TJ Dillashaw(10 fights)Walel Watson(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +143.9|Blue -143.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +7.0|Blue -7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
TJ DillashawTargetWalel Watson
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1TJ Dillashaw edged it
Sig. strikes23
Takedowns1
Control4:47
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2TJ Dillashaw edged it
Sig. strikes46
Takedowns1
Control4:36
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3TJ Dillashaw edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns1
Control3:01
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
