Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Diego Brandao has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Diego Brandao has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Brian Ortega (52.9%).
- Brian Ortega has a 13cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Diego BrandaoW2 streak
oldest →W
vs Daniel Pineda · Aug 13L
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Dec 13L
KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 14W
KOvs Jimy Hettes · Apr 15W
KOvs Katsunori Kikuno · Sep 15 Brian OrtegaL2 streak
oldest →L
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Sep 21L
KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 22W
SUBvs Yair Rodriguez · Feb 24L
vs Aljamain Sterling · Aug 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Diego BrandaoMetricBrian Ortega
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.44Δ 2.10 — meaningful gap-2.54
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Diego BrandaoBrian Ortega
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Diego Brandao(10 fights)Brian Ortega(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +1.7|Blue -1.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -112.0|Blue +112.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Diego BrandaoTargetBrian Ortega
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Diego Brandao edged it
Sig. strikes25
Takedowns2
Control0:01
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:05Control
Round 2Diego Brandao edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:00
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Diego Brandao edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:19
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:36Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
