Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matt Wiman threatens submissions; Luis Pena has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Stance matchup historically favors Luis Pena (53.5%).
- Luis Pena has a 18cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Matt WimanL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Paul Sass · Sep 12W
vs Isaac Vallie-Flagg · Nov 14L
KOvs Jordan Leavitt · Dec 20 Luis Pena
oldest →W
vs Steven Peterson · Mar 19L
vs Matt Frevola · Oct 19W
vs Steve Garcia · Feb 20L
SUBvs Khama Worthy · Jun 20W
vs Alexander Munoz · Apr 21 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Matt WimanMetricLuis Pena
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.40evenly matched on net striking+0.54
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Matt WimanLuis Pena
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Matt Wiman(10 fights)Luis Pena(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -101.2|Blue +101.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +1.5|Blue -1.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +1582.0|Blue -1582.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Matt WimanTargetLuis Pena
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Luis Pena edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns1
Control0:10
35Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
3:09Control
Round 2Luis Pena edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:04
29Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
4:03Control
Round 3Luis Pena edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:00
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:20Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
