Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Ilia Topuria has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Ilia Topuria has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
- Jai Herbert has a 20cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Jai Herbert
oldest →W
vs Rolando Bedoya · Aug 24L
vs Chris Padilla · Mar 25W
KOvs Mandel Nallo · Apr 26 Ilia Topuria
oldest →W
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 24W
KOvs Max Holloway · Oct 24W
KOvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 25L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jun 26 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Jai HerbertMetricIlia Topuria
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.15Δ 1.13 — meaningful gap+0.98
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Jai HerbertIlia Topuria
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Jai Herbert(9 fights)Ilia Topuria(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -8.1|Blue +8.1
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -105.0|Blue +105.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Jai HerbertTargetIlia Topuria
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Jai Herbert edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:07
Knockdowns1
12Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:38Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Ilia Topuria edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
1Knockdowns
