Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matt Wiman enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Matt Wiman threatens submissions; Paul Sass has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Matt Wiman has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Paul Sass has a 13cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Paul Sass
oldest →W
SUBvs Mark Holst · Oct 10W
SUBvs Michael Johnson · Oct 11W
SUBvs Jacob Volkmann · May 12L
vs Danny Castillo · Feb 13 Matt WimanL3 streak
oldest →W
vs Isaac Vallie-Flagg · Nov 14L
KOvs Jordan Leavitt · Dec 20 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Paul SassMetricMatt Wiman
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.37evenly matched on net striking-0.40
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Paul SassMatt Wiman
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Paul Sass(5 fights)Matt Wiman(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -40.4|Blue +40.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.7|Blue +1.7
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -238.0|Blue +238.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Paul SassTargetMatt Wiman
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Paul Sass edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns1
Control2:56
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:40Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
