Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Islam Makhachev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Islam Makhachev threatens submissions; Dustin Poirier has lost 44% of fights by sub.
- Islam Makhachev has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Islam MakhachevW5 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Oct 22W
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Feb 23W
KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Oct 23W
SUBvs Renato Moicano · Jan 25W
vs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 25 Dustin Poirier
oldest →L
SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Dec 21W
SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23W
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24L
vs Max Holloway · Jul 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Islam MakhachevMetricDustin Poirier
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+1.00evenly matched on net striking+0.67
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Islam MakhachevDustin Poirier
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Islam Makhachev(10 fights)Dustin Poirier(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +49.9|Blue -49.9
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.5|Blue +1.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +140.0|Blue -140.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Islam MakhachevTargetDustin Poirier
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns1
Control4:23
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns1
Control0:49
24Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:15Control
Round 3Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns1
Control2:10
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
Round 4Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns1
Control2:28
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:10Control
Round 5Islam Makhachev edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns1
Control0:33
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
