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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Lando Vannata won · SUB R1
Elo1478
Lando Vannata
Elo1376

Lando VannatavsMarcos MarianoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva · Saturday, February 9, 2019Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Official fight result

Lando Vannata won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:55

Model Prediction: Lando Vannata wins(59.3%)

Actual result: Lando Vannata wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lando Vannata at -450 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Lando Vannata enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Lando Vannata has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Lando Vannata has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Marcos Mariano (52.9%).
  • Marcos Mariano has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Lando Vannata
Red Corner
VS
Marcos Mariano
Blue Corner
-450
(82%)
Vegas Odds
+360
(22%)
1478
Elo
1376
34
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'9"
Height
6'1"
180.34 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Lando VannataL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Bobby Green · Aug 20
W
vs Mike Grundy · May 21
L
SUBvs Charles Jourdain · Apr 22
L
vs Daniel Zellhuber · Apr 23
L
KOvs Darrius Flowers · Apr 26
latest
Marcos Mariano
oldest →
L
DECvs Caludio Puelles · Sep 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Lando VannataMetricMarcos Mariano
4.52
Strikes / min
0.25
4.71
Strikes absorbed / min
2.11
54%
Strike defense
43%
1.24
TDs / 15 min
0.00
66%
Takedown defense
28%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.19Δ 1.67 — meaningful gap-1.86

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1475 vs 1500Strikes57.8 vs —Takedowns1.2 vs —Sub Atts0.33 vs —Form-0.7 vs 0.0
Lando VannataMarcos Mariano

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601475149015051520← oldermost recent →
Lando Vannata(10 fights)Marcos Mariano(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +101.3|Blue -101.3
Recent Form
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score
Red -48.0|Blue +48.0
Grappler Score
Red -49.8|Blue +49.8
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Lando VannataTargetMarcos Mariano

By target zone

18
49% acc · 90%
Head
2
29% acc · 67%
0
0% acc
Body
0
2
100% acc · 10%
Leg
1
50% acc · 33%

By position

2
50% acc · 10%
Distance
1
14% acc · 33%
0
Clinch
0
18
50% acc · 90%
Ground
2
100% acc · 67%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Lando Vannata rounds
0
even
0
Marcos Mariano rounds
Round 1Lando Vannata edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns1
Control3:35
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
20 / 40
Sig Strikes
3 / 9
50%
Sig Str %
33%
39 / 64
Total Strikes
4 / 11
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
3:35
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Marcos Mariano3 / 94 / 110 / 00
1Lando Vannata20 / 4039 / 641 / 11

Lando Vannata

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights12

Marcos Mariano

StanceSwitch
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights2