Flyweight

3 Rounds

Mitch Raposo won · U-DEC R3

Elo1467

Elo1527

Azat MaksumvsMitch RaposoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · Saturday, October 25, 2025Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Mitch Raposo won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAzat Maksum: WrestlervsMitch Raposo: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Mitch Raposo wins(50.6%)

Actual result: Mitch Raposo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mitch Raposo at +385 American odds

+$385 profit

$485 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Azat Maksum has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Mitch Raposo (54.1%).
Azat Maksum has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Azat Maksum

Red Corner

Mitch Raposo

Blue Corner

-500

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+385

(21%)

1467

Elo

1527

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

5'7"

Height

5'5"

177.8 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Azat MaksumL2 streak

oldest →

vs Tyson Nam · Jul 23

vs Charles Johnson · Feb 24

vs Tagir Ulanbekov · Jun 25

latest

Mitch Raposo

oldest →

vs Andre Lima · Jun 24

vs Sumudaerji · Apr 25

DECvs Allan Nascimento · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Azat MaksumMetricMitch Raposo

2.75

Strikes / min

1.73

4.25

Strikes absorbed / min

2.65

52%

Strike defense

61%

3.50

TDs / 15 min

2.54

85%

Takedown defense

61%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.50evenly matched on net striking-0.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Azat MaksumMitch Raposo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Azat Maksum(4 fights)Mitch Raposo(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -59.2|Blue +59.2

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Azat MaksumTargetMitch Raposo

By target zone

18% acc · 74%

Head

40% acc · 67%

33% acc · 5%

Body

54% acc · 23%

80% acc · 21%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

20% acc · 89%

Distance

46% acc · 100%

50% acc · 5%

Clinch

0% acc

100% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Azat Maksum rounds

even

Mitch Raposo rounds

Round 1Azat Maksum edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control2:18

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Azat Maksum edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns3

Control1:24

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 3Azat Maksum edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns3

Control1:45

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:45Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 88

Sig Strikes

30 / 66

20%

Sig Str %

43%

30 / 101

Total Strikes

53 / 92

7 / 19

TDs

0 / 0

42.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:27

Ctrl Time

0:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mitch Raposo	4 / 18	8 / 24	0 / 0
1	Azat Maksum	4 / 27	9 / 33	1 / 2
2	Mitch Raposo	17 / 25	24 / 32	0 / 0
2	Azat Maksum	12 / 34	15 / 38	3 / 6
3	Mitch Raposo	9 / 23	21 / 36	0 / 0
3	Azat Maksum	3 / 27	6 / 30	3 / 11

Azat Maksum

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4

Mitch Raposo

StanceSwitch

Height65.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights4