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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Paulo Costa won · KO/TKO R3
Elo1536
Elo1522
Paulo Costa

Azamat MurzakanovvsPaulo CostaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · Saturday, April 11, 2026Miami, USA

Official fight result

Paulo Costa won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:23

Style matchupAzamat Murzakanov: Well-roundedvsPaulo Costa: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Azamat Murzakanov wins(58.3%)

Actual result: Paulo Costa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Azamat Murzakanov enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Azamat Murzakanov
Red Corner
VS
Paulo Costa
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1536
Elo
1522
37
Age
35
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
6'1"
180.34 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Azamat MurzakanovW5 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Devin Clark · Aug 22
W
vs Dustin Jacoby · Apr 23
W
KOvs Alonzo Menifield · Aug 24
W
KOvs Brendson Ribeiro · Jun 25
W
KOvs Aleksandar Rakic · Oct 25
latest
Paulo Costa
oldest →
L
vs Marvin Vettori · Oct 21
W
vs Luke Rockhold · Aug 22
L
vs Robert Whittaker · Feb 24
L
vs Sean Strickland · Jun 24
W
vs Roman Kopylov · Jul 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Azamat MurzakanovMetricPaulo Costa
4.40
Strikes / min
6.15
3.20
Strikes absorbed / min
5.96
56%
Strike defense
49%
0.68
TDs / 15 min
0.30
88%
Takedown defense
77%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.20Δ 1.01 — meaningful gap+0.19
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801500152015401560← oldermost recent →
Azamat Murzakanov(7 fights)Paulo Costa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +13.8|Blue -13.8
Recent Form
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Striker Score
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red -98.0|Blue +98.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Azamat Murzakanov

StanceSouthpaw
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights6

Paulo Costa

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights11