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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Azamat Murzakanov won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1536

Elo1440

Azamat MurzakanovvsBrendson RibeiroUFC Prediction Result

UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Saturday, June 7, 2025Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Azamat Murzakanov won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:25

Model Prediction: Azamat Murzakanov wins(67.1%)

Actual result: Azamat Murzakanov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Azamat Murzakanov at -620 American odds

+$16 profit

$116 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brendson Ribeiro enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Azamat Murzakanov is a KO finisher (83% of wins). Brendson Ribeiro has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Azamat Murzakanov has 67pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Azamat Murzakanov (53.5%).
Brendson Ribeiro has a 25cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Azamat Murzakanov

Red Corner

Brendson Ribeiro

Blue Corner

-620

(86%)

Vegas Odds

+460

(18%)

1536

Elo

1440

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'3"

180.34 cm

Reach

205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Azamat Murzakanov

oldest →

KOvs Devin Clark · Aug 22

vs Dustin Jacoby · Apr 23

KOvs Alonzo Menifield · Aug 24

KOvs Aleksandar Rakic · Oct 25

KOvs Paulo Costa · Apr 26

latest

Brendson RibeiroL3 streak

oldest →

vs Caio Machado · Nov 24

SUBvs Diyar Nurgozhay · Mar 25

KOvs Oumar Sy · Sep 25

SUBvs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev · Apr 26

DECvs Magomed Tuchalov · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Azamat MurzakanovMetricBrendson Ribeiro

4.40

Strikes / min

3.04

3.20

Strikes absorbed / min

3.91

56%

Strike defense

53%

0.68

TDs / 15 min

0.85

88%

Takedown defense

21%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.20Δ 2.07 — meaningful gap-0.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Azamat MurzakanovBrendson Ribeiro

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Azamat Murzakanov(7 fights)Brendson Ribeiro(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +95.4|Blue -95.4

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +224.0|Blue -224.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Azamat MurzakanovTargetBrendson Ribeiro

By target zone

72% acc · 85%

Head

19% acc · 38%

100% acc · 15%

Body

100% acc · 25%

Leg

75% acc · 38%

By position

70% acc · 26%

Distance

36% acc · 100%

Clinch

77% acc · 74%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Azamat Murzakanov rounds

even

Brendson Ribeiro rounds

Round 1Azamat Murzakanov edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:27

Knockdowns1

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 36

Sig Strikes

8 / 22

75%

Sig Str %

36%

29 / 38

Total Strikes

8 / 22

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:27

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brendson Ribeiro	8 / 22	8 / 22	0 / 0	0
1	Azamat Murzakanov	27 / 36	29 / 38	0 / 0	0

Azamat Murzakanov

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6

Brendson Ribeiro

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights8