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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Tresean Gore won · Submission R3
Elo1487
Azamat Bekoev
Elo1506
Tresean Gore editorial illustration

Azamat BekoevvsTresean GoreUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan · Saturday, April 4, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Tresean Gore won

Submission · Round 3 · 3:27

Engine 7.0 was correct

Pre-fight pick: Tresean Gore

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Tresean Gore at +450 American odds · hypothetical only

+$450 profit

$550 total returned

Style matchupAzamat Bekoev: WrestlervsTresean Gore: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Azamat Bekoev wins(73.0%)

Actual result: Tresean Gore wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Azamat Bekoev is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Tresean Gore has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Tresean Gore threatens submissions; Azamat Bekoev has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Tresean Gore has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Tresean Gore (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Azamat Bekoev
Red Corner
VS
Tresean Gore
Blue Corner
-699
(87%)
Vegas Odds
+450
(18%)
1487
Elo
1506
30
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
6'0"
Height
6'0"
182.88 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Azamat Bekoev
oldest →
W
KOvs Zach Reese · Jan 25
W
KOvs Ryan Loder · May 25
L
KOvs Yousri Belgaroui · Oct 25
latest
Tresean GoreL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Cody Brundage · Jul 22
W
SUBvs Josh Fremd · Oct 22
W
SUBvs Antonio Trocoli · Nov 24
L
KOvs Marco Tulio · Apr 25
L
vs Rodolfo Vieira · Aug 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Azamat BekoevMetricTresean Gore
4.57
Strikes / min
3.41
6.83
Strikes absorbed / min
7.00
31%
Strike defense
40%
3.48
TDs / 15 min
1.91
62%
Takedown defense
83%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.26Δ 1.33 — meaningful gap-3.59

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1517 vs 1469Strikes4.1 vs 2.8Takedowns4.5 vs 1.8Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.90Form0.1 vs -0.5
Azamat BekoevTresean Gore

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701488150515231540← oldermost recent →
Azamat Bekoev(4 fights)Tresean Gore(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -18.8|Blue +18.8
Recent Form
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red -77.0|Blue +77.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Azamat BekoevTargetTresean Gore

By target zone

33
57% acc · 47%
Head
51
60% acc · 65%
30
60% acc · 43%
Body
8
100% acc · 10%
7
100% acc · 10%
Leg
19
95% acc · 24%

By position

49
54% acc · 70%
Distance
62
67% acc · 79%
11
92% acc · 16%
Clinch
9
64% acc · 12%
10
83% acc · 14%
Ground
7
100% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Azamat Bekoev rounds
1
even
1
Tresean Gore rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes35
Takedowns0
Control0:19
33Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:36Control
Round 2Azamat Bekoev edged it
Sig. strikes30
Takedowns2
Control1:38
Knockdowns1
25Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:38Control
0Knockdowns
Round 3Tresean Gore edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:00
20Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:55Control

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
70 / 115
Sig Strikes
78 / 113
61.3%
Sig Str %
69%
128 / 175
Total Strikes
98 / 136
2 / 5
TDs
2 / 3
22%
TD %
66.7%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
1:57
Ctrl Time
4:09

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Tresean Gore33 / 4634 / 480 / 10
1Azamat Bekoev35 / 6146 / 730 / 10
2Tresean Gore25 / 4040 / 571 / 10
2Azamat Bekoev30 / 4654 / 712 / 30
3Tresean Gore20 / 2724 / 311 / 11
3Azamat Bekoev5 / 828 / 310 / 10

The Pick

Vegas favorite
Azamat Bekoev
Odds
-699

Market-implied probability

Tresean Gore 17%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Azamat Bekoev$114
Tresean Gore (model pick · research)$550

17% market-implied · model 49% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260517_110941

🔒 Pick locked May 17, 2026, 11:10 AM UTC · never rewritten

Azamat Bekoev

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights4

Tresean Gore

StanceSwitch
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights8