← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Axel Sola won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1526

Elo1489

Axel SolavsRhys McKeeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · Saturday, September 6, 2025Paris, Ile-de-France, France

Official fight result

Axel Sola won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:02

Style matchupAxel Sola: WrestlervsRhys McKee: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Axel Sola wins(73.5%)

Actual result: Axel Sola wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Axel Sola at -136 American odds

+$74 profit

$174 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Axel Sola has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Rhys McKee has 47pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Axel Sola (53.5%).
Rhys McKee has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Axel Sola

Red Corner

Rhys McKee

Blue Corner

-136

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+116

(46%)

1526

Elo

1489

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'2"

187.96 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Axel Sola

oldest →

vs Mason Jones · Mar 26

SUBvs Ismael Bonfim · Jul 26

latest

Rhys McKee

oldest →

KOvs Khamzat Chimaev · Jul 20

vs Alex Morono · Nov 20

vs Ange Loosa · Sep 23

vs Chidi Njokuani · Mar 24

KOvs Daniel Frunza · Apr 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Axel SolaMetricRhys McKee

4.07

Strikes / min

4.71

5.29

Strikes absorbed / min

7.15

61%

Strike defense

47%

2.22

TDs / 15 min

0.00

Takedown defense

47%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.22Δ 1.22 — meaningful gap-2.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Axel SolaRhys McKee

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Axel Sola(3 fights)Rhys McKee(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +36.8|Blue -36.8

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +49.7|Blue -49.7

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Axel SolaTargetRhys McKee

By target zone

43% acc · 89%

Head

21% acc · 82%

45% acc · 11%

Body

86% acc · 18%

Leg

By position

38% acc · 80%

Distance

20% acc · 70%

71% acc · 11%

Clinch

53% acc · 30%

100% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Axel Sola rounds

even

Rhys McKee rounds

Round 1Axel Sola edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control2:11

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Axel Sola edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:51

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Axel Sola edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 105

Sig Strikes

33 / 135

43.3%

Sig Str %

23.7%

52 / 114

Total Strikes

48 / 156

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

16.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:05

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rhys McKee	6 / 39	15 / 53	0 / 0
1	Axel Sola	9 / 25	13 / 29	1 / 3
2	Rhys McKee	16 / 59	20 / 64	0 / 0
2	Axel Sola	18 / 49	19 / 52	0 / 1
3	Rhys McKee	11 / 37	13 / 39	0 / 0
3	Axel Sola	18 / 31	20 / 33	0 / 0

Axel Sola

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights3

Rhys McKee

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights6