Featherweight

3 Rounds

Melquizael Costa won · U-DEC R3

Elo1467

Elo1564

Austin LingovsMelquizael CostaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · Saturday, July 15, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Melquizael Costa won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAustin Lingo: StrikervsMelquizael Costa: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Melquizael Costa wins(62.9%)

Actual result: Melquizael Costa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Melquizael Costa at -225 American odds

+$44 profit

$144 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Austin Lingo has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Melquizael Costa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Austin Lingo

Red Corner

Melquizael Costa

Blue Corner

+188

(35%)

Vegas Odds

-225

(69%)

1467

Elo

1564

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Austin Lingo

oldest →

DECvs Youssef Zalel · Feb 20

vs Jacob Kilburn · Jan 21

vs Luis Saldana · Aug 21

SUBvs Nate Landwehr · Mar 23

latest

Melquizael Costa

oldest →

vs Christian Rodriguez · Mar 25

vs Julian Erosa · May 25

KOvs Morgan Charriere · Dec 25

KOvs Dan Ige · Feb 26

DECvs Arnold Allen · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Austin LingoMetricMelquizael Costa

3.86

Strikes / min

4.38

4.86

Strikes absorbed / min

2.97

57%

Strike defense

54%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

2.00

75%

Takedown defense

58%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.00Δ 2.41 — meaningful gap+1.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Austin LingoMelquizael Costa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Austin Lingo(5 fights)Melquizael Costa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -96.6|Blue +96.6

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Austin LingoTargetMelquizael Costa

By target zone

21% acc · 62%

Head

29% acc · 39%

65% acc · 28%

Body

66% acc · 48%

50% acc · 10%

Leg

93% acc · 13%

By position

28% acc · 100%

Distance

44% acc · 93%

Clinch

67% acc · 6%

Ground

50% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Austin Lingo rounds

even

Melquizael Costa rounds

Round 1Melquizael Costa edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

43Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Melquizael Costa edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Melquizael Costa edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:44Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 139

Sig Strikes

100 / 220

28%

Sig Str %

45%

39 / 140

Total Strikes

108 / 236

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 8

—

TD %

21%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

2:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Melquizael Costa	43 / 94	45 / 96	0 / 1	0
1	Austin Lingo	14 / 56	14 / 56	0 / 0	0
2	Melquizael Costa	37 / 83	38 / 84	0 / 0	0
2	Austin Lingo	17 / 56	17 / 56	0 / 0	0
3	Melquizael Costa	20 / 43	25 / 56	3 / 7	1
3	Austin Lingo	8 / 27	8 / 28	0 / 0	0

Austin Lingo

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights5

Melquizael Costa

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights9