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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Austin Hubbard won · U-DEC R3

Elo1478

Elo1493

Austin HubbardvsMichal FiglakUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · Saturday, April 27, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Austin Hubbard won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAustin Hubbard: Well-roundedvsMichal Figlak: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Austin Hubbard wins(62.0%)

Actual result: Austin Hubbard wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Austin Hubbard at +145 American odds

+$145 profit

$245 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Austin Hubbard enters on a 5-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Austin Hubbard

Red Corner

Michal Figlak

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-175

(64%)

1478

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Austin HubbardL5 streak

oldest →

vs Vinc Pichel · Aug 21

SUBvs Kurt Holobaugh · Aug 23

vs Alexander Hernandez · Oct 24

vs MarQuel Mederos · Mar 25

vs Rongzhu · Aug 25

latest

Michal Figlak

oldest →

vs Fares Ziam · Sep 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Austin HubbardMetricMichal Figlak

3.97

Strikes / min

4.00

4.10

Strikes absorbed / min

4.93

55%

Strike defense

52%

1.63

TDs / 15 min

0.50

68%

Takedown defense

57%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.13evenly matched on net striking-0.93

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Austin HubbardMichal Figlak

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Austin Hubbard(10 fights)Michal Figlak(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -15.3|Blue +15.3

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -350.0|Blue +350.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Austin HubbardTargetMichal Figlak

By target zone

34% acc · 63%

Head

35% acc · 65%

76% acc · 25%

Body

84% acc · 17%

73% acc · 13%

Leg

89% acc · 17%

By position

42% acc · 97%

Distance

43% acc · 96%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

67% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Austin Hubbard rounds

even

Michal Figlak rounds

Round 1Michal Figlak edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control0:18

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Austin Hubbard edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns2

Control0:30

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:16Control

Fight Stats

Totals

88 / 206

Sig Strikes

92 / 210

42%

Sig Str %

44%

99 / 220

Total Strikes

100 / 218

3 / 7

TDs

0 / 3

38.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:48

Ctrl Time

1:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Michal Figlak	26 / 59	27 / 60	0 / 0
1	Austin Hubbard	19 / 57	27 / 67	1 / 2
2	Michal Figlak	30 / 81	30 / 81	0 / 0
2	Austin Hubbard	37 / 85	37 / 86	0 / 2
3	Michal Figlak	36 / 70	43 / 77	0 / 3
3	Austin Hubbard	32 / 64	35 / 67	2 / 3

Austin Hubbard

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights12

Michal Figlak

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights2