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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Joe Solecki won · SUB

Elo1478

Elo1489

Austin HubbardvsJoe SoleckiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Munhoz vs. Edgar · Saturday, August 22, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Joe Solecki won

SUB

Style matchupAustin Hubbard: Well-roundedvsJoe Solecki: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Joe Solecki wins(83.7%)

Actual result: Joe Solecki wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joe Solecki at -112 American odds

+$89 profit

$189 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Austin Hubbard enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Joe Solecki enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Austin Hubbard has 54pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Austin Hubbard

Red Corner

Joe Solecki

Blue Corner

-112

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-112

(53%)

1478

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Austin HubbardL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kurt Holobaugh · Aug 23

vs Michal Figlak · Apr 24

vs Alexander Hernandez · Oct 24

vs MarQuel Mederos · Mar 25

vs Rongzhu · Aug 25

latest

Joe SoleckiL3 streak

oldest →

vs Alex Da Silva · Jun 22

SUBvs Carl Deaton · Feb 23

KOvs Drakkar Klose · Dec 23

vs Grant Dawson · Jun 24

vs Nurullo Aliev · Jan 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Austin HubbardMetricJoe Solecki

3.97

Strikes / min

1.97

4.10

Strikes absorbed / min

1.85

55%

Strike defense

50%

1.63

TDs / 15 min

2.06

68%

Takedown defense

14%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.13evenly matched on net striking+0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Austin HubbardJoe Solecki

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Austin Hubbard(10 fights)Joe Solecki(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -11.8|Blue +11.8

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -30.9|Blue +30.9

Layoff

Red -196.0|Blue +196.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Austin HubbardTargetJoe Solecki

By target zone

40% acc · 22%

Head

53% acc · 62%

80% acc · 44%

Body

100% acc · 15%

75% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 23%

By position

55% acc · 67%

Distance

56% acc · 69%

100% acc · 33%

Clinch

100% acc · 31%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Austin Hubbard rounds

even

Joe Solecki rounds

Round 1Joe Solecki edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:37Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 14

Sig Strikes

13 / 20

64%

Sig Str %

65%

9 / 14

Total Strikes

36 / 43

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

2:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Joe Solecki	13 / 20	36 / 43	0 / 2	1
1	Austin Hubbard	9 / 14	9 / 14	0 / 0	0

Austin Hubbard

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights12

Joe Solecki

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights9