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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Austin Hubbard won · U-DEC

Elo1478

Elo1416

Austin HubbardvsDakota BushUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum · Saturday, April 17, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Austin Hubbard won

U-DEC

Style matchupAustin Hubbard: Well-roundedvsDakota Bush: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Austin Hubbard wins(58.3%)

Actual result: Austin Hubbard wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Austin Hubbard at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Austin Hubbard enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Austin Hubbard has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Austin Hubbard has 68pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Austin Hubbard

Red Corner

Dakota Bush

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1478

Elo

1416

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Austin HubbardL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kurt Holobaugh · Aug 23

vs Michal Figlak · Apr 24

vs Alexander Hernandez · Oct 24

vs MarQuel Mederos · Mar 25

vs Rongzhu · Aug 25

latest

Dakota Bush

oldest →

KOvs Viacheslav Borshchev · Jan 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Austin HubbardMetricDakota Bush

3.97

Strikes / min

2.77

4.10

Strikes absorbed / min

4.42

55%

Strike defense

41%

1.63

TDs / 15 min

2.40

68%

Takedown defense

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.13Δ 1.52 — meaningful gap-1.65

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Austin HubbardDakota Bush

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Austin Hubbard(10 fights)Dakota Bush(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +62.1|Blue -62.1

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Austin HubbardTargetDakota Bush

By target zone

42% acc · 48%

Head

29% acc · 41%

83% acc · 15%

Body

30% acc · 15%

93% acc · 37%

Leg

72% acc · 44%

By position

54% acc · 73%

Distance

39% acc · 100%

67% acc · 3%

Clinch

76% acc · 24%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Austin Hubbard rounds

even

Dakota Bush rounds

Round 1Austin Hubbard edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns1

Control0:02

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Austin Hubbard edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control3:21

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:33Control

Round 3Austin Hubbard edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control3:19

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:58Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

67 / 115

Sig Strikes

41 / 104

60.7%

Sig Str %

37.3%

126 / 181

Total Strikes

54 / 122

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 6

100%

TD %

12.5%

Sub Att

Rev

6:42

Ctrl Time

1:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dakota Bush	30 / 73	30 / 73	0 / 0
1	Austin Hubbard	34 / 65	34 / 65	1 / 1
2	Dakota Bush	7 / 15	16 / 26	0 / 2
2	Austin Hubbard	13 / 22	30 / 42	0 / 0
3	Dakota Bush	4 / 16	8 / 23	1 / 4
3	Austin Hubbard	20 / 28	62 / 74	0 / 0

Austin Hubbard

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights12

Dakota Bush

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights2