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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Alexander Hernandez won · S-DEC R3

Elo1478

Elo1523

Austin HubbardvsAlexander HernandezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Saturday, October 5, 2024Salt Lake City, Utah, USA

Official fight result

Alexander Hernandez won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAustin Hubbard: Well-roundedvsAlexander Hernandez: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Alexander Hernandez wins(61.9%)

Actual result: Alexander Hernandez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexander Hernandez at -108 American odds

+$93 profit

$193 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Austin Hubbard

Red Corner

Alexander Hernandez

Blue Corner

-112

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-108

(52%)

1478

Elo

1523

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Austin HubbardL2 streak

oldest →

vs Vinc Pichel · Aug 21

SUBvs Kurt Holobaugh · Aug 23

vs Michal Figlak · Apr 24

vs MarQuel Mederos · Mar 25

vs Rongzhu · Aug 25

latest

Alexander Hernandez

oldest →

vs Damon Jackson · Apr 24

vs Kurt Holobaugh · Mar 25

KOvs Chase Hooper · Aug 25

KOvs Diego Ferreira · Sep 25

DECvs Rafa Garcia · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Austin HubbardMetricAlexander Hernandez

3.97

Strikes / min

4.23

4.10

Strikes absorbed / min

4.45

55%

Strike defense

59%

1.63

TDs / 15 min

1.05

68%

Takedown defense

68%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.13evenly matched on net striking-0.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Austin HubbardAlexander Hernandez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Austin Hubbard(10 fights)Alexander Hernandez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -45.6|Blue +45.6

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Austin HubbardTargetAlexander Hernandez

By target zone

23% acc · 51%

Head

28% acc · 52%

60% acc · 40%

Body

58% acc · 28%

86% acc · 10%

Leg

73% acc · 20%

By position

34% acc · 95%

Distance

38% acc · 99%

21% acc · 5%

Clinch

100% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Austin Hubbard rounds

even

Alexander Hernandez rounds

Round 1Alexander Hernandez edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Alexander Hernandez edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:05

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:31Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

63 / 191

Sig Strikes

79 / 204

31%

Sig Str %

38.3%

65 / 193

Total Strikes

91 / 217

0 / 12

TDs

0 / 2

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

0:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Alexander Hernandez	23 / 60	23 / 60	0 / 1
1	Austin Hubbard	10 / 44	11 / 45	0 / 2
2	Alexander Hernandez	26 / 71	32 / 77	0 / 1
2	Austin Hubbard	22 / 66	22 / 66	0 / 7
3	Alexander Hernandez	30 / 73	36 / 80	0 / 0
3	Austin Hubbard	31 / 81	32 / 82	0 / 3

Austin Hubbard

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights12

Alexander Hernandez

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights18