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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Austin Bashi won · SUB R1
Elo1482
Austin Bashi editorial illustration
Elo1491
John Yannis

Austin BashivsJohn YannisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · Saturday, August 2, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Austin Bashi won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:39

Style matchupAustin Bashi: WrestlervsJohn Yannis: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Austin Bashi wins(85.7%)

Actual result: Austin Bashi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Austin Bashi at -1150 American odds

+$9 profit

$109 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Austin Bashi threatens submissions; John Yannis has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • John Yannis has 26pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
  • Stance matchup historically favors John Yannis (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Austin Bashi
Red Corner
VS
John Yannis
Blue Corner
-1150
(92%)
Vegas Odds
+730
(12%)
1482
Elo
1491
24
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'6"
Height
5'7"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Austin BashiL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Christian Rodriguez · Jan 25
L
DECvs Jose Delgado · Jul 26
latest
John Yannis
oldest →
W
KOvs Jamie Siraj · Apr 26
L
DECvs Marcus McGhee · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Austin BashiMetricJohn Yannis
1.75
Strikes / min
3.30
2.34
Strikes absorbed / min
1.26
48%
Strike defense
74%
7.81
TDs / 15 min
0.00
62%
Takedown defense
66%
1.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.59Δ 2.63 — meaningful gap+2.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1486 vs 1500Strikes1.8 vs 0.0Takedowns7.8 vs 0.0Sub Atts1.70 vs 0.00Form-1.0 vs 0.0
Austin BashiJohn Yannis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701485150015151530← oldermost recent →
Austin Bashi(3 fights)John Yannis(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -9.5|Blue +9.5
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red -49.7|Blue +49.7
Grappler Score
Red -48.8|Blue +48.8
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Austin BashiTargetJohn Yannis

By target zone

2
29% acc · 100%
Head
0
0% acc
0
Body
0
0% acc
0
Leg
0

By position

2
33% acc · 100%
Distance
0
0% acc
0
Clinch
0
0
0% acc
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Austin Bashi rounds
0
even
0
John Yannis rounds
Round 1Austin Bashi edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns1
Control2:53
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
2 / 7
Sig Strikes
0 / 5
28%
Sig Str %
0%
48 / 67
Total Strikes
2 / 9
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:53
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1John Yannis0 / 52 / 90 / 00
1Austin Bashi2 / 748 / 671 / 11

Austin Bashi

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights3

John Yannis

StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights3