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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Austen Lane won · U-DEC R3

Elo1449

Elo1493

Austen LanevsRobelis DespaigneUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · Saturday, October 19, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Austen Lane won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Austen Lane wins(56.3%)

Actual result: Austen Lane wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Austen Lane at +330 American odds

+$330 profit

$430 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Austen Lane enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Robelis Despaigne is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Austen Lane has lost 80% of fights by KO.
Robelis Despaigne has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Robelis Despaigne has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Austen Lane

Red Corner

Robelis Despaigne

Blue Corner

+330

(23%)

Vegas Odds

-425

(81%)

1449

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'6"

Height

6'7"

203.2 cm

Reach

213.36 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Austen LaneL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Justin Tafa · Sep 23

KOvs Jhonata Diniz · Apr 24

KOvs Mario Pinto · Mar 25

SUBvs Vitor Petrino · Jul 25

KOvs Iwo Baraniewski · Mar 26

latest

Robelis Despaigne

oldest →

KOvs Josh Parisian · Mar 24

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · May 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Austen LaneMetricRobelis Despaigne

2.70

Strikes / min

2.11

2.45

Strikes absorbed / min

2.54

39%

Strike defense

46%

1.50

TDs / 15 min

0.00

33%

Takedown defense

50%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.25evenly matched on net striking-0.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Austen LaneRobelis Despaigne

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Austen Lane(6 fights)Robelis Despaigne(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -44.6|Blue +44.6

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Austen LaneTargetRobelis Despaigne

By target zone

35% acc · 30%

Head

61% acc · 74%

86% acc · 26%

Body

100% acc · 6%

91% acc · 43%

Leg

100% acc · 19%

By position

61% acc · 74%

Distance

58% acc · 68%

Clinch

100% acc · 32%

60% acc · 26%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Austen Lane rounds

even

Robelis Despaigne rounds

Round 1Austen Lane edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control4:19

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control0:53

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Austen Lane edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control3:46

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 38

Sig Strikes

31 / 46

63.7%

Sig Str %

79.7%

78 / 110

Total Strikes

48 / 68

3 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

38.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:58

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Robelis Despaigne	4 / 4	12 / 15	0 / 0
1	Austen Lane	6 / 8	14 / 21	1 / 3
2	Robelis Despaigne	16 / 29	17 / 30	0 / 0
2	Austen Lane	12 / 22	18 / 29	1 / 3
3	Robelis Despaigne	11 / 13	19 / 23	0 / 0
3	Austen Lane	5 / 8	46 / 60	1 / 2

Austen Lane

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights6

Robelis Despaigne

StanceOrthodox

Height79.0"

Reach84.0"

Fights3