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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Mario Pinto won · KO/TKO R2
Elo1449
Austen Lane
Elo1548
Mario Pinto

Austen LanevsMario PintoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · Saturday, March 1, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mario Pinto won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:39

Model Prediction: Mario Pinto wins(69.3%)

Actual result: Mario Pinto wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mario Pinto at -550 American odds

+$18 profit

$118 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Mario Pinto is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Austen Lane has lost 80% of fights by KO.
  • Mario Pinto has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Mario Pinto has 67pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Austen Lane
Red Corner
VS
Mario Pinto
Blue Corner
+420
(19%)
Vegas Odds
-550
(85%)
1449
Elo
1548
38
Age
28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'6"
Height
6'5"
203.2 cm
Reach
200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Austen LaneL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Justin Tafa · Sep 23
L
KOvs Jhonata Diniz · Apr 24
W
vs Robelis Despaigne · Oct 24
L
SUBvs Vitor Petrino · Jul 25
L
KOvs Iwo Baraniewski · Mar 26
latest
Mario PintoW2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Jhonata Diniz · Oct 25
W
vs Felipe Franco · Mar 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Austen LaneMetricMario Pinto
2.70
Strikes / min
2.85
2.45
Strikes absorbed / min
1.93
39%
Strike defense
58%
1.50
TDs / 15 min
2.38
33%
Takedown defense
100%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.25evenly matched on net striking+0.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1488 vs 1500Strikes2.7 vs 2.9Takedowns1.5 vs 2.4Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.90Form0.0 vs 0.0
Austen LaneMario Pinto

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14301463149515281560← oldermost recent →
Austen Lane(6 fights)Mario Pinto(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -99.9|Blue +99.9
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -49.6|Blue +49.6
Grappler Score
Red -49.8|Blue +49.8
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Austen LaneTargetMario Pinto

By target zone

17
40% acc · 53%
Head
8
44% acc · 62%
13
76% acc · 41%
Body
2
100% acc · 15%
2
50% acc · 6%
Leg
3
100% acc · 23%

By position

31
53% acc · 97%
Distance
12
60% acc · 92%
1
20% acc · 3%
Clinch
1
50% acc · 8%
0
Ground
0
0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Austen Lane rounds
0
even
1
Mario Pinto rounds
Round 1Austen Lane edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:53
Knockdowns1
7Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:17Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2Mario Pinto edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
1
32 / 63
Sig Strikes
13 / 23
50%
Sig Str %
56.5%
36 / 75
Total Strikes
16 / 26
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 1
0%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:53
Ctrl Time
0:18

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Mario Pinto7 / 1110 / 140 / 10
1Austen Lane20 / 3823 / 460 / 10
2Mario Pinto6 / 126 / 120 / 00
2Austen Lane12 / 2513 / 290 / 00

Austen Lane

StanceOrthodox
Height78.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights6

Mario Pinto

StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights3