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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Jhonata Diniz won · KO/TKO R2
Elo1449
Austen Lane
Elo1501

Austen LanevsJhonata DinizUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · Saturday, April 27, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jhonata Diniz won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:12

Model Prediction: Jhonata Diniz wins(71.1%)

Actual result: Jhonata Diniz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Austen Lane enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Jhonata Diniz has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Jhonata Diniz has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Austen Lane
Red Corner
VS
Jhonata Diniz
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1449
Elo
1501
38
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'6"
Height
6'4"
203.2 cm
Reach
200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Austen LaneL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Justin Tafa · Sep 23
W
vs Robelis Despaigne · Oct 24
L
KOvs Mario Pinto · Mar 25
L
SUBvs Vitor Petrino · Jul 25
L
KOvs Iwo Baraniewski · Mar 26
latest
Jhonata Diniz
oldest →
W
vs Karl Williams · Aug 24
L
KOvs Marcin Tybura · Nov 24
W
vs Alvin Hines · Jun 25
L
KOvs Mario Pinto · Oct 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Austen LaneMetricJhonata Diniz
2.70
Strikes / min
3.89
2.45
Strikes absorbed / min
3.62
39%
Strike defense
56%
1.50
TDs / 15 min
0.00
33%
Takedown defense
70%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.25evenly matched on net striking+0.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1487 vs 1500Strikes2.5 vs 4.1Takedowns2.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form-1.0 vs 0.0
Austen LaneJhonata Diniz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14301455148015051530← oldermost recent →
Austen Lane(6 fights)Jhonata Diniz(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -52.7|Blue +52.7
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red -49.6|Blue +49.6
Grappler Score
Red -49.8|Blue +49.8
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Austen LaneTargetJhonata Diniz

By target zone

15
44% acc · 88%
Head
15
54% acc · 75%
2
67% acc · 12%
Body
4
100% acc · 20%
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 5%

By position

11
44% acc · 65%
Distance
16
64% acc · 80%
0
Clinch
4
50% acc · 20%
6
50% acc · 35%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Austen Lane rounds
0
even
1
Jhonata Diniz rounds
Round 1Austen Lane edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns1
Control4:10
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Jhonata Diniz edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:19
Knockdowns0
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:32Control
1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
17 / 37
Sig Strikes
20 / 33
45.5%
Sig Str %
55.5%
43 / 73
Total Strikes
31 / 45
1 / 4
TDs
0 / 0
50%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
4:29
Ctrl Time
0:32

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jhonata Diniz1 / 25 / 60 / 00
1Austen Lane9 / 1935 / 551 / 10
2Jhonata Diniz19 / 3126 / 390 / 00
2Austen Lane8 / 188 / 180 / 30

Austen Lane

StanceOrthodox
Height78.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights6

Jhonata Diniz

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights5