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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Tai Tuivasa won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1496

Elo1453

Augusto SakaivsTai TuivasaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Saturday, December 11, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tai Tuivasa won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:26

Style matchupAugusto Sakai: Pressure fightervsTai Tuivasa: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Tai Tuivasa wins(52.1%)

Actual result: Tai Tuivasa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tai Tuivasa at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tai Tuivasa enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Tai Tuivasa is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Augusto Sakai has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Tai Tuivasa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Augusto Sakai

Red Corner

Tai Tuivasa

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1496

Elo

1453

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'2"

195.58 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Augusto Sakai

oldest →

vs Blagoy Ivanov · May 20

KOvs Alistair Overeem · Sep 20

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Jun 21

KOvs Serghei Spivac · Aug 22

vs Don'Tale Mayes · Feb 23

latest

Tai TuivasaL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Alexander Volkov · Sep 23

SUBvs Marcin Tybura · Mar 24

vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 24

vs Tallison Teixeira · Jan 26

DECvs Louie Sutherland · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Augusto SakaiMetricTai Tuivasa

4.60

Strikes / min

3.37

3.83

Strikes absorbed / min

4.61

48%

Strike defense

42%

0.23

TDs / 15 min

0.00

56%

Takedown defense

58%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.77Δ 2.01 — meaningful gap-1.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Augusto SakaiTai Tuivasa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Augusto Sakai(9 fights)Tai Tuivasa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +43.5|Blue -43.5

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Augusto SakaiTargetTai Tuivasa

By target zone

50% acc · 29%

Head

60% acc · 76%

92% acc · 57%

Body

100% acc · 24%

75% acc · 14%

Leg

0% acc

By position

42% acc · 24%

Distance

48% acc · 38%

94% acc · 76%

Clinch

84% acc · 62%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Augusto Sakai rounds

even

Tai Tuivasa rounds

Round 1Tai Tuivasa edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:33

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:57Control

Round 2Tai Tuivasa edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 29

Sig Strikes

34 / 52

69.5%

Sig Str %

65%

40 / 49

Total Strikes

44 / 62

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:33

Ctrl Time

1:58

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tai Tuivasa	24 / 37	34 / 47	0 / 1
1	Augusto Sakai	19 / 26	38 / 46	0 / 1
2	Tai Tuivasa	10 / 15	10 / 15	0 / 0
2	Augusto Sakai	2 / 3	2 / 3	0 / 0

Augusto Sakai

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights9

Tai Tuivasa

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17