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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Augusto Sakai won · U-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1482

Augusto SakaivsDon'Tale MayesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · Saturday, February 25, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Augusto Sakai won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Augusto Sakai wins(58.1%)

Actual result: Augusto Sakai wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Augusto Sakai at -135 American odds

+$74 profit

$174 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Augusto Sakai enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Don'Tale Mayes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Don'Tale Mayes is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Augusto Sakai has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Don'Tale Mayes has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Augusto Sakai

Red Corner

Don'Tale Mayes

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1496

Elo

1482

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'6"

195.58 cm

Reach

205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Augusto SakaiL4 streak

oldest →

vs Blagoy Ivanov · May 20

KOvs Alistair Overeem · Sep 20

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Jun 21

KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Dec 21

KOvs Serghei Spivac · Aug 22

latest

Don'Tale MayesL3 streak

oldest →

vs Rodrigo Nascimento · Nov 23

vs Caio Machado · Apr 24

vs Shamil Gaziev · Aug 24

SUBvs Valter Walker · Feb 25

vs Thomas Petersen · May 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Augusto SakaiMetricDon'Tale Mayes

4.60

Strikes / min

3.22

3.83

Strikes absorbed / min

3.61

48%

Strike defense

46%

0.23

TDs / 15 min

0.59

56%

Takedown defense

46%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.77Δ 1.16 — meaningful gap-0.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Augusto SakaiDon'Tale Mayes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Augusto Sakai(9 fights)Don'Tale Mayes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +14.1|Blue -14.1

Recent Form

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -231.0|Blue +231.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Augusto SakaiTargetDon'Tale Mayes

By target zone

42% acc · 51%

Head

33% acc · 52%

82% acc · 34%

Body

83% acc · 34%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

43% acc · 40%

Distance

43% acc · 83%

71% acc · 57%

Clinch

83% acc · 17%

50% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Augusto Sakai rounds

even

Don'Tale Mayes rounds

Round 1Augusto Sakai edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control2:58

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:53Control

Round 2Augusto Sakai edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control2:52

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:06Control

Round 3Augusto Sakai edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control3:01

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:47Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 95

Sig Strikes

29 / 62

56.3%

Sig Str %

45%

107 / 173

Total Strikes

77 / 121

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

8:51

Ctrl Time

2:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Don'Tale Mayes	13 / 20	29 / 38	0 / 1
1	Augusto Sakai	19 / 38	31 / 57	0 / 0
2	Don'Tale Mayes	4 / 15	31 / 45	0 / 0
2	Augusto Sakai	16 / 27	46 / 64	0 / 1
3	Don'Tale Mayes	12 / 27	17 / 38	0 / 0
3	Augusto Sakai	18 / 30	30 / 52	1 / 1

Augusto Sakai

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights9

Don'Tale Mayes

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights10