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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Augusto Sakai won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1496

Elo1459

Augusto SakaivsChase ShermanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · Saturday, September 22, 2018Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Augusto Sakai won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:03

Style matchupAugusto Sakai: Pressure fightervsChase Sherman: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Augusto Sakai wins(50.7%)

Actual result: Augusto Sakai wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Augusto Sakai at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Chase Sherman is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Augusto Sakai has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Chase Sherman has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Augusto Sakai

Red Corner

Chase Sherman

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1496

Elo

1459

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'4"

195.58 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Augusto Sakai

oldest →

KOvs Alistair Overeem · Sep 20

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Jun 21

KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Dec 21

KOvs Serghei Spivac · Aug 22

vs Don'Tale Mayes · Feb 23

latest

Chase ShermanL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jake Collier · Jan 22

SUBvs Alexandr Romanov · Apr 22

KOvs Jared Vanderaa · Jul 22

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Nov 22

vs Karl Williams · May 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Augusto SakaiMetricChase Sherman

4.60

Strikes / min

6.04

3.83

Strikes absorbed / min

6.65

48%

Strike defense

52%

0.23

TDs / 15 min

0.09

56%

Takedown defense

74%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.77Δ 1.38 — meaningful gap-0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Augusto SakaiChase Sherman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Augusto Sakai(9 fights)Chase Sherman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +37.4|Blue -37.4

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +46.9|Blue -46.9

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Augusto SakaiTargetChase Sherman

By target zone

48% acc · 73%

Head

31% acc · 47%

60% acc · 19%

Body

67% acc · 30%

64% acc · 8%

Leg

82% acc · 23%

By position

41% acc · 62%

Distance

44% acc · 92%

79% acc · 27%

Clinch

46% acc · 8%

92% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Augusto Sakai rounds

even

Chase Sherman rounds

Round 1Chase Sherman edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:00

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 2Augusto Sakai edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:47Control

Round 3Augusto Sakai edged it

Sig. strikes60

Takedowns1

Control1:09

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:23Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

111 / 218

Sig Strikes

79 / 178

48.3%

Sig Str %

45%

125 / 233

Total Strikes

84 / 183

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:09

Ctrl Time

1:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Chase Sherman	32 / 76	33 / 77	0 / 0
1	Augusto Sakai	23 / 60	23 / 60	0 / 0
2	Chase Sherman	23 / 59	26 / 62	0 / 0
2	Augusto Sakai	28 / 66	33 / 71	0 / 0
3	Chase Sherman	24 / 43	25 / 44	0 / 0
3	Augusto Sakai	60 / 92	69 / 102	1 / 1

Augusto Sakai

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights9

Chase Sherman

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights15