Welterweight

3 Rounds

Augusto Montano won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1358

Elo1354

Augusto MontanovsChris HeatherlyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt · Saturday, November 15, 2014Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Augusto Montano won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:50

Style matchupAugusto Montano: StrikervsChris Heatherly: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Chris Heatherly wins(60.3%)

Actual result: Augusto Montano wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Heatherly at +235 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Augusto Montano is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Chris Heatherly has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Chris Heatherly has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Augusto Montano has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Augusto Montano

Red Corner

Chris Heatherly

Blue Corner

-255

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+235

(30%)

1358

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'9"

185.42 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Augusto MontanoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Cathal Pendred · Jun 15

KOvs Belal Muhammad · Sep 16

latest

Chris Heatherly

oldest →

SUBvs Ben Saunders · Aug 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Augusto MontanoMetricChris Heatherly

3.46

Strikes / min

1.08

2.66

Strikes absorbed / min

2.67

56%

Strike defense

52%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

3.39

66%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.80Δ 2.39 — meaningful gap-1.59

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Augusto MontanoChris Heatherly

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Augusto Montano(3 fights)Chris Heatherly(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.1|Blue -4.1

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Augusto MontanoTargetChris Heatherly

By target zone

51% acc · 67%

Head

39% acc · 88%

100% acc · 27%

Body

40% acc · 7%

Leg

50% acc · 13%

By position

24% acc · 13%

Distance

46% acc · 75%

79% acc · 73%

Clinch

29% acc · 25%

57% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Augusto Montano rounds

even

Chris Heatherly rounds

Round 1Augusto Montano edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control1:27

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:48Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 52

Sig Strikes

8 / 20

57%

Sig Str %

40%

32 / 54

Total Strikes

10 / 22

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 3

—

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

1:27

Ctrl Time

0:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chris Heatherly	8 / 20	10 / 22	1 / 3	0
1	Augusto Montano	30 / 52	32 / 54	0 / 0	0

Augusto Montano

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights3

Chris Heatherly

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach—

Fights2