Welterweight

3 Rounds

Cathal Pendred won · U-DEC R3

Elo1358

Elo1356

Augusto MontanovsCathal PendredUFC Prediction Result

UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum · Saturday, June 13, 2015Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Cathal Pendred won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupAugusto Montano: StrikervsCathal Pendred: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Cathal Pendred wins(75.0%)

Actual result: Cathal Pendred wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cathal Pendred at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Augusto Montano is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Cathal Pendred has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Cathal Pendred has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Augusto Montano

Red Corner

Cathal Pendred

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1358

Elo

1356

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Augusto Montano

oldest →

KOvs Chris Heatherly · Nov 14

KOvs Belal Muhammad · Sep 16

latest

Cathal PendredL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Mike King · Jul 14

vs Gasan Umalatov · Oct 14

vs Sean Spencer · Jan 15

vs John Howard · Jul 15

KOvs Tom Breese · Oct 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Augusto MontanoMetricCathal Pendred

3.46

Strikes / min

2.49

2.66

Strikes absorbed / min

3.01

56%

Strike defense

55%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

2.46

66%

Takedown defense

83%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.80Δ 1.32 — meaningful gap-0.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Augusto MontanoCathal Pendred

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Augusto Montano(3 fights)Cathal Pendred(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.4|Blue -2.4

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +64.0|Blue -64.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Augusto MontanoTargetCathal Pendred

By target zone

24% acc · 38%

Head

6% acc · 6%

47% acc · 33%

Body

0% acc

86% acc · 29%

Leg

80% acc · 94%

By position

33% acc · 67%

Distance

43% acc · 88%

54% acc · 33%

Clinch

33% acc · 12%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Augusto Montano rounds

even

Cathal Pendred rounds

Round 1Cathal Pendred edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:38Control

Round 2Cathal Pendred edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

4:32Control

Round 3Augusto Montano edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:11Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 55

Sig Strikes

17 / 41

46%

Sig Str %

48.7%

28 / 62

Total Strikes

45 / 75

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 17

—

TD %

19%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

6:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Cathal Pendred	9 / 21	13 / 25	0 / 4
1	Augusto Montano	8 / 19	8 / 19	0 / 0
2	Cathal Pendred	5 / 6	19 / 25	4 / 7
2	Augusto Montano	4 / 6	7 / 9	0 / 0
3	Cathal Pendred	3 / 14	13 / 25	0 / 6
3	Augusto Montano	9 / 30	13 / 34	0 / 0

Augusto Montano

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights3

Cathal Pendred

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights6