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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Belal Muhammad won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1358

Elo1479

Augusto MontanovsBelal MuhammadUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson · Saturday, September 17, 2016Hidalgo, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Belal Muhammad won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:19

Style matchupAugusto Montano: StrikervsBelal Muhammad: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Belal Muhammad wins(65.8%)

Actual result: Belal Muhammad wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Belal Muhammad at -470 American odds

+$21 profit

$121 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Belal Muhammad enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Belal Muhammad has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Augusto Montano

Red Corner

Belal Muhammad

Blue Corner

+375

(21%)

Vegas Odds

-470

(82%)

1358

Elo

1479

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'11"

185.42 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Augusto Montano

oldest →

KOvs Chris Heatherly · Nov 14

vs Cathal Pendred · Jun 15

latest

Belal MuhammadL3 streak

oldest →

vs Gilbert Burns · May 23

vs Leon Edwards · Jul 24

vs Jack Della Maddalena · May 25

vs Ian Machado Garry · Nov 25

DECvs Gabriel Bonfim · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Augusto MontanoMetricBelal Muhammad

3.46

Strikes / min

4.43

2.66

Strikes absorbed / min

3.82

56%

Strike defense

55%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

2.14

66%

Takedown defense

90%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.80evenly matched on net striking+0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Augusto MontanoBelal Muhammad

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Augusto Montano(3 fights)Belal Muhammad(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -121.2|Blue +121.2

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +390.0|Blue -390.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Augusto MontanoTargetBelal Muhammad

By target zone

16% acc · 18%

Head

41% acc · 83%

44% acc · 10%

Body

50% acc · 6%

86% acc · 72%

Leg

88% acc · 11%

By position

45% acc · 100%

Distance

40% acc · 80%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

93% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Augusto Montano rounds

even

Belal Muhammad rounds

Round 1Augusto Montano edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:00

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:44Control

Round 3Belal Muhammad edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:34Control

Fight Stats

Totals

67 / 149

Sig Strikes

66 / 149

43.7%

Sig Str %

43%

72 / 154

Total Strikes

118 / 210

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 4

—

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

3:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Belal Muhammad	19 / 48	19 / 48	0 / 1
1	Augusto Montano	30 / 55	30 / 55	0 / 0
2	Belal Muhammad	17 / 45	38 / 66	1 / 1
2	Augusto Montano	22 / 47	27 / 52	0 / 0
3	Belal Muhammad	30 / 56	61 / 96	2 / 2
3	Augusto Montano	15 / 47	15 / 47	0 / 0

Augusto Montano

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights3

Belal Muhammad

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights21