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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Ateba Gautier won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1601
Ateba Gautier editorial illustration
Elo1482

Ateba GautiervsTre'ston VinesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · Saturday, October 4, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Ateba Gautier won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:41

Model Prediction: Ateba Gautier wins(83.0%)

Actual result: Ateba Gautier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ateba Gautier at -1800 American odds

+$6 profit

$106 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Ateba Gautier enters on a 4-fight win streak.
  • Ateba Gautier has 93pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Ateba Gautier (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Ateba Gautier
Red Corner
VS
Tre'ston Vines
Blue Corner
-1800
(95%)
Vegas Odds
+980
(9%)
1601
Elo
1482
24
Age
30
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'1"
205.74 cm
Reach
200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ateba GautierW4 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Jose Daniel Medina · Mar 25
W
KOvs Robert Valentin · Jul 25
W
vs Andrey Pulyaev · Jan 26
W
KOvs Ozzy Diaz · May 26
latest
Tre'ston VinesNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ateba GautierMetricTre'ston Vines
4.32
Strikes / min
0.00
2.60
Strikes absorbed / min
3.56
54%
Strike defense
50%
0.41
TDs / 15 min
0.00
93%
Takedown defense
0%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.72Δ 5.28 — meaningful gap-3.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1533 vs 1500Strikes4.4 vs 0.0Takedowns0.5 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs 0.0
Ateba GautierTre'ston Vines

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701508154515831620← oldermost recent →
Ateba Gautier(5 fights)Tre'ston Vines(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +118.5|Blue -118.5
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Grappler Score
Red -49.6|Blue +49.6
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ateba GautierTargetTre'ston Vines

By target zone

4
40% acc · 67%
Head
0
2
100% acc · 33%
Body
0
0
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

1
20% acc · 17%
Distance
0
0% acc
4
100% acc · 67%
Clinch
0
1
33% acc · 17%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Ateba Gautier rounds
0
even
0
Tre'ston Vines rounds
Round 1Ateba Gautier edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns1
Control0:04
Knockdowns1
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:06Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
6 / 12
Sig Strikes
0 / 1
50%
Sig Str %
0%
6 / 12
Total Strikes
0 / 1
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 2
100%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:04
Ctrl Time
0:06

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Tre'ston Vines0 / 10 / 10 / 20
1Ateba Gautier6 / 126 / 121 / 10

Ateba Gautier

StanceSwitch
Height76.0"
Reach81.0"
Fights5

Tre'ston Vines

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights1