Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Middleweight
3 Rounds
Ateba Gautier won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1601
Ateba Gautier editorial illustration
Elo1461
Robert Valentin editorial illustration

Ateba GautiervsRobert ValentinUFC Prediction Result

UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Saturday, July 19, 2025New Orleans, Louisiana, USA

Official fight result

Ateba Gautier won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:10

Model Prediction: Ateba Gautier wins(87.8%)

Actual result: Ateba Gautier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Ateba Gautier enters on a 4-fight win streak.
  • Ateba Gautier is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Robert Valentin has lost 67% of fights by KO.
  • Ateba Gautier has 21pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Ateba Gautier has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Ateba Gautier (52.9%).
  • Ateba Gautier has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Ateba Gautier
Red Corner
VS
Robert Valentin
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1601
Elo
1461
24
Age
31
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'2"
205.74 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ateba GautierW4 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Jose Daniel Medina · Mar 25
W
KOvs Tre'ston Vines · Oct 25
W
vs Andrey Pulyaev · Jan 26
W
KOvs Ozzy Diaz · May 26
latest
Robert ValentinL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Ryan Loder · Aug 24
L
vs Torrez Finney · Apr 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ateba GautierMetricRobert Valentin
4.32
Strikes / min
1.30
2.60
Strikes absorbed / min
2.72
54%
Strike defense
33%
0.41
TDs / 15 min
0.59
93%
Takedown defense
55%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.72Δ 3.14 — meaningful gap-1.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1518 vs 1464Strikes4.4 vs 1.1Takedowns0.5 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.30Form1.0 vs -1.0
Ateba GautierRobert Valentin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14501493153515781620← oldermost recent →
Ateba Gautier(5 fights)Robert Valentin(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +140.0|Blue -140.0
Recent Form
Red +2.0|Blue -2.0
Striker Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red +7.0|Blue -7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Ateba GautierTargetRobert Valentin

By target zone

16
47% acc · 84%
Head
1
33% acc · 50%
3
100% acc · 16%
Body
0
0% acc
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 50%

By position

16
48% acc · 84%
Distance
2
40% acc · 100%
1
100% acc · 5%
Clinch
0
2
67% acc · 11%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Ateba Gautier rounds
0
even
0
Robert Valentin rounds
Round 1Ateba Gautier edged it
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:01
Knockdowns1
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
19 / 37
Sig Strikes
2 / 5
51%
Sig Str %
40%
19 / 37
Total Strikes
2 / 5
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:01
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Robert Valentin2 / 52 / 50 / 00
1Ateba Gautier19 / 3719 / 370 / 00

Ateba Gautier

StanceSwitch
Height76.0"
Reach81.0"
Fights5

Robert Valentin

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights3